The effects of global uncertainty factors, local financial variables, and global financial market variables on the CDS of PIIGS countries
Haverford College. Department of Economics
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This paper seeks to find the variables most responsible for causing fragmentation of bond and CDS spreads in the Eurozone. It analyzes the fragmented economies of the Eurozone, the PIIGS countries, and sets of global uncertainty variables, local financial variables, and global financial market variables. This paper uses daily data on these variables from 30 September 2014 to 20 May 2022. A panel regression and a series of single country regressions are used to analyze this data. In the panel regression only the OVX produces significant results; this is likely due to results having mixed results for the other variables. The individual country regressions find that nearly every variable is significant with variety in the effects of each variable on each country. The relationship between Greek CDS spreads and the US 10-year treasury rate as well as the relationship between debt/GDP and Greek and Irish CDS spreads.