The Effects of Personal Records and Age-Adjusted Personal Records on Race Performance: An Assessment of Reference Points

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2022
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Haverford College. Department of Economics
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Thesis
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Award
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eng
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Haverford users only
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Abstract
This paper examines potential salient reference points in marathon running. I first construct a panel data set of Grandma's Marathon race results from 1977 through 2019 at the individual-runner-level. I then consider the impacts of Event Personal Record (PR) and Event Age-Adjusted Personal Record (PR) as runners age on various dependent measures including future Grandma's Marathon race performances and likelihoods of running Grandma's Marathon again. The results of my regression discontinuity designs reveal significant evidence for the adverse impacts of running an Event PR or Event Age-Adjusted PR upon improvement in subsequent races. I also find evidence for the importance of Event PR in determining runner improvement decreasing over time, and mixed evidence for the importance of Event Age-Adjusted PR in determining runner age-adjusted improvement over time.
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