Signing Bonuses & Subsequent Productivity: Predicting Success in the MLB Draft

Date
2012
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Producer
Director
Performer
Choreographer
Costume Designer
Music
Videographer
Lighting Designer
Set Designer
Crew Member
Funder
Rehearsal Director
Concert Coordinator
Moderator
Panelist
Alternative Title
Department
Haverford College. Department of Economics
Type
Thesis
Original Format
Running Time
File Format
Place of Publication
Date Span
Copyright Date
Award
Language
eng
Note
Table of Contents
Terms of Use
Rights Holder
Access Restrictions
Open Access
Tripod URL
Identifier
Abstract
This study examines the ability of Major League Baseball organizations to successfully value and project the future productivity of players selected in the amateur draft. To do so, the relationship between player valuations (i.e. signing bonuses) and future productivity is investigated. Productivity is measured using three different metrics: Wins-Above Replacement, the probability of making a Major League Appearance, and the probability of becoming an All-Star. The results suggest that holding constant round & placement in round, elevated draft pick compensation significantly influences the likelihood of making the Major Leagues, and to a much lesser extent, player productivity once there. A supplementary analysis reveals that while teams are somewhat successful in their attempts to project future productivity, they are not necessarily efficient in their allocation of signing bonus expenditures.
Description
Citation
Collections