The Precarious Pursuit of an Elusive Peace: Assessing the Impact of Violence on Ex-Combatant Completion of the Colombian Reintegration Program
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2022
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Haverford College. Department of Economics
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Thesis
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Award
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eng
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Tri-College users only
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Abstract
Colombia's civil conflict has wreaked havoc in the country for over five decades. The war has taken the lives of 220,000 people and left 5.7 million individuals displaced. In the wake of this mass destruction, the country must contend with the precarious process of transition between civil war and civil society (Felter & Renwick, 2017). This thesis assesses the impact of violence, as measured by terrorist attacks, homicides, displacement events, and civilian attacks, on the likelihood that an ex-combatant completes the government-led reintegration program (ARN) in their respective municipality. I measure this impact with linear probability models including municipality and year fixed effects. Ultimately, I find that there is a precisely estimated zero effect of violence on ARN program completion. Nevertheless, subgroup analysis indicates that violence has differential effects on program completion for ex-AUC and ex-FARC fighters. Ex-AUC fighters are more negatively impacted by violence when attempting to complete the ARN program relative to ex-FARC fighters. Furthermore, there is some suggestive evidence that violence has differential effects on program completion for ex-combatants reintegrating in urban relative to rural areas. Ex-combatants in urban areas appear to be more negatively impacted by violence when completing the ARN program relative to ex-combatants reintegrating in rural areas.