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Demographics as a Predictor of United States Equity Prices

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dc.contributor.advisor Arredondo-Chavez, Alberto Tamkin, Eva 2021-07-12T12:44:10Z 2021-07-12T12:44:10Z 2021
dc.description.abstract In this paper, I find that the long-run, secular moves of the MY ratio, the ratio of middle-aged to young, is related to the long-run, secular moves of the S&P 500 from 1950 to 2020. I focus my research on the United States, but also find compelling evidence of the MY ratio's global importance through the case of Japan. Utilizing a vector error correction model (VECM), I project the ability of economic variables and the MY ratio to accurately predict S&P 500 growth. I then create forecasts of the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 growth rates until 2050 using only medium-variant predictions of the MY ratio.
dc.description.sponsorship Haverford College. Department of Economics
dc.language.iso eng
dc.subject.lcsh Demographics
dc.subject.lcsh Stock markets -- United States
dc.subject.lcsh Consumption (Economics) -- United States
dc.subject.lcsh Saving and investment -- United States
dc.subject.lcsh Stock markets -- Japan
dc.subject.lcsh Consumption (Economics) -- Japan
dc.subject.lcsh Saving and investment -- Japan
dc.title Demographics as a Predictor of United States Equity Prices
dc.type Thesis
dc.rights.access Open Access

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