dc.contributor.advisor |
Arredondo-Chavez, Alberto |
|
dc.contributor.author |
Tamkin, Eva |
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2021-07-12T12:44:10Z |
|
dc.date.available |
2021-07-12T12:44:10Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2021 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10066/23570 |
|
dc.description.abstract |
In this paper, I find that the long-run, secular moves of the MY ratio, the ratio of middle-aged to young, is related to the long-run, secular moves of the S&P 500 from 1950 to 2020. I focus my research on the United States, but also find compelling evidence of the MY ratio's global importance through the case of Japan. Utilizing a vector error correction model (VECM), I project the ability of economic variables and the MY ratio to accurately predict S&P 500 growth. I then create forecasts of the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 growth rates until 2050 using only medium-variant predictions of the MY ratio. |
|
dc.description.sponsorship |
Haverford College. Department of Economics |
|
dc.language.iso |
eng |
|
dc.rights.uri |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
|
dc.subject.lcsh |
Demographics |
|
dc.subject.lcsh |
Stock markets -- United States |
|
dc.subject.lcsh |
Consumption (Economics) -- United States |
|
dc.subject.lcsh |
Saving and investment -- United States |
|
dc.subject.lcsh |
Stock markets -- Japan |
|
dc.subject.lcsh |
Consumption (Economics) -- Japan |
|
dc.subject.lcsh |
Saving and investment -- Japan |
|
dc.title |
Demographics as a Predictor of United States Equity Prices |
|
dc.type |
Thesis |
|
dc.rights.access |
Open Access |
|