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Does Running Fast Lead to Thinking Fast? Evidence from the NFL Combine and NFL Draft

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dc.contributor.advisor Kontorovich, Vladimir Dukarm, Ryan 2019-09-01T21:48:18Z 2019-09-01T21:48:18Z 2019
dc.description.abstract This research aims to analyze the theory of thinking fast and thinking slow by studying how decision makers in the National Football League respond to high stakes and high visibility athletic testing results from the NFL Combine in their decisions in the NFL Draft. The athletic testing information gathered from the Combine is the last piece of information from a yearlong scouting process and provides an ideal testing ground for whether decision makers in one of the largest and highest stake industries in the world are overreacting to more recent information in their draft decisions. This analysis looks to tests four events that are commonly associated with being important to success at four offensive positions and whether they predict not only draft position, but if they predict subsequent NFL success as well. Our results indicate that all of the key events that are seen as common knowledge do predict draft position for their individual position and in general are properly valued by NFL teams. However, especially when it comes to running backs and offensive linemen, there is room for improvement to NFL teams’ decision making process in properly valuing events that are less commonly assumed to be associated with success. This research provides results generalizable to other industries by suggesting there is often more than meets the eyes to predicting success while hiring.
dc.description.sponsorship Haverford College. Department of Economics
dc.language.iso eng
dc.subject.lcsh Football draft -- United States
dc.subject.lcsh National Football League
dc.subject.lcsh Decision making
dc.title Does Running Fast Lead to Thinking Fast? Evidence from the NFL Combine and NFL Draft
dc.type Thesis
dc.rights.access Open Access

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