Uncertainty in the Hiring Process: The Effect of College Baseball Playoff Performance on the MLB Draft

Abstract

With the high level of volatility and financial investment involved in the Major League Baseball First Year Player Draft, teams are faced with difficult choices when determining which players will project as MLB contributors years down the line. This makes the MLB draft an intriguing laboratory to explore high-value decision making and analyze which biases are at play. Out of the draft eligible population, college players make up a significant portion. Previous literature suggests that the availability bias may have an effect on executive decision making. Due to the close proximity between the college baseball playoffs and the MLB draft, as well as the exciting and suspenseful nature of postseason baseball, the availability bias may have an important effect on MLB team decision making. The focus of this paper is to assess which factors MLB teams view to be most important and analyze if teams are correctly valuing the factors that ultimately lead to production at the MLB level. Using draft and MLB performance data from Baseball Reference, as well as a personally-created college performance dataset built from roster and box score information from collegiate archives and The Baseball Cube, I find that MLB teams are most influenced by regular season performance and player exposure in the college baseball playoffs when making draft decisions, and this is justified, as scouts’ valuation of college playoff performance aligns with performance at the MLB level. This result is found following the methodological framework laid out in Ichniowski & Preston (2017), as I utilize tobit, probit, and OLS models to reach my conclusion. Ultimately, this paper adds to the literature on high-value decision making, as well as providing information to aid in MLB draft strategy.