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Are Consumers Rational? A look at NBA teams’ end of game shot selection

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dc.contributor.advisor Gaus, Eric Glazer, Christopher 2019-09-01T21:48:17Z 2019-09-01T21:48:17Z 2019
dc.description.abstract This paper studies rational consumer theory in conjunction with prospect theory, using NBA shot selection data. By examining a very specific decision at the end of basketball games – a team’s choice to shoot a two or a three on their last shot of the game when trailing by 2 points – this research aims to generalize that basketball choice to comment on consumer decision theory in economics. Play-by-play data from every NBA game from 2004-2015, curated by Big Ball Data, and NBA Elo ratings over the same timeframe are used to estimate both normative and descriptive regressions. An assessment of team’s actual decisions produces preliminary evidence of deviation from the optimal choice, similar to what is predicted under prospect theory as a result of the certainty effect. This effect seems to be most pronounced when considering the difference between home and away teams.
dc.description.sponsorship Haverford College. Department of Economics
dc.language.iso eng
dc.subject.lcsh National Basketball Association -- Decision making -- Statistical methods
dc.subject.lcsh Consumer behavior
dc.title Are Consumers Rational? A look at NBA teams’ end of game shot selection
dc.type Thesis
dc.rights.access Haverford users only

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