The Day the Bear Cowered: Russian Non-Intervention in the Baltics
Date
2018
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Haverford College. Department of Political Science
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Thesis
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eng
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Open Access
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Abstract
Russia’s lack of military intervention in the Baltics is peculiar when considering the fact that Russia used military intervention in both Moldova and Georgia as a means of keeping them from leaving Russia’s zone of influence. Therefore, this thesis addresses the following research question: why didn’t Russia militarily intervene in the Baltics from their independence in 1991 to their accession into NATO and the EU in 2004? To answer this question three hypotheses are proposed. First, high levels of civic nationalism in a post-soviet state will dissuade Russia from militarily intervening in that state. Second, high levels of Western support for a post-soviet state will dissuade Russia from militarily intervening in that state. Third, good diplomatic relations between the West and Russia will dissuade Russia from militarily intervening in a post-soviet state. These hypothesis are then tested in three case studies: Russian intervention in Moldova in 1992, Russian intervention in Georgia from 1992-1993 and Russian non-intervention in the Baltics from 1991-2004. The analysis of these case studies supports the validity of the first two hypotheses, while the third is proven to be insignificant.