Browsing by Author "Owens, David M."
Now showing 1 - 20 of 52
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- ItemAge vs. Wear and Tear: The Deterioration of an NFL Running Back(2010) Kennedy, Chase; Owens, David M.This study examines the deterioration of an NFL running back. The two factors examined in this study are the age and wear and tear of a running back. Age is examined by comparing the affect of one additional year of age on running back production, during their ages of decline. Wear and tear is examined by comparing the affect that an additional season’s workload has on production. Results show a non-linear relationship between both age and career workload with production. Running back production is shown to gradually decline at higher ages as well as higher career workload levels. There is also evidence to dismiss the possibility of an age threshold for running back production. Interestingly, however, there appears to be a possible threshold in career workload and its affect on production.
- ItemAn Analysis of the Effects of Long-Term Contracts on Performance in Major League Baseball(2016) Taylor, Zachary; Owens, David M.This study explores the effects of long-term contracts in Major League Baseball on players’ performance. By predicting performance of individual players using past performance, among other variables, this paper measures whether players perform as expected, or under/over-perform after signing a long-term contract in the free-agent market from the seasons 2006-2015. This paper analyzes pitchers and position players separately. It is expected that players with long-term contracts will underperform do to a disincentive to work hard based on the job security of a long-term contract. The results show that position players and pitchers do not underperform in the year after signing a new long-term contract, but there is a positive relationship between underperformance and total value of a contract. There may be a disincentive to perform after signing a contract for a specific amount of guaranteed money.
- ItemAn Experimental Investigation of Motivation Crowding Theory(2014) Ferrara, Alexandra; Owens, David M.A large amount of research has debated the effects of extrinsic incentives on altruistic motivation. This paper contributes to this discussion by examining motivation crowding theory through a unique experimental design. The methodology allows the author to measure the magnitude of the crowding out effect with a level of precision that has not been achieved in the past. The paper focuses on the impacts of financial incentives on altruistic behavior in the form of a donation to the Red Cross. The results reveal that crowding out does occur and that the magnitude of the effect is equal to $1.75. This effect is further analyzed in relation to several sub-groups within the sample.
- ItemAre Stock Market Participants Rational?: Examining the Case of Seasonal Companies(2013) Yan, Shuning; Owens, David M.This thesis seeks to explore whether stock market participants are rational in the case of stock prices’ reaction to seasonal company revenue changes. Rational market participants are expected to differentiate between known seasonal revenue fluctuations and new revenue information. Through fixed effect analysis is applied on the data of S&P 500 companies to study the correlation between the revenue index, income, and the stock price index for strong, weak and non -seasonal companies. Strong results in support of market participants as rational is drawn.
- ItemBaby, I Can See Your Halo : How the Halo Effect, Loss Aversion, and Strategic Attribute Disclosure Neglect Can Inform Negative Advertising(2019) Sultan, Madison; Owens, David M.This paper analyzes how the halo effect, loss aversion, and neglect of the strategic nature of information revelation are present in consumer’s sequential learning and belief updating about the quality of products. The implications of these biases are analyzed to determine the circumstances under which producers will optimally engage in negative advertising. A theoretical model is developed and tested using an experiment conducted on Prolific Academic using data from Consumer Reports.
- ItemBetting in Baseball: Is the Run-Line Market Efficient?(2016) Kane, Sam; Owens, David M.This paper explores the baseball betting market to determine if the Run-Line, a specific form of baseball betting, is market efficient. This analysis builds on prior literature that has analyzed other forms of baseball betting, such as the Money-Line and Total. Market efficiency is determined using a standardized Z-statistic through a comparison between the number of expected wins, based on listed pre-game betting odds, and the number of actual wins, based on post-game results, for teams at each individual Run-Line. Additionally, an aggregate test is run to determine the efficiency of the Run-Line market when grouping all Run-Lines together. The results of both the individual and aggregate Run-Line analyses show the market to be highly efficient. No systematic and predictable biases are present; teams win as often as their betting odds imply. The lack of predictable biases, coupled with the transaction costs of baseball wagers, makes it difficult to achieve sustained profits betting on the Run- Line.
- ItemBetting Market Efficiency during the COVID Crisis: Evidence from the 2020-2021 NFL Season(2021) Orefice, Matthew; Owens, David M.The COVID-19 outbreak presents an unprecedented shock to betting markets and financial markets alike. With limited capacity in stadiums, the COVID crisis allows us to isolate the impact of crowd support from other determinants of home-field advantage such as stadium familiarity and travel. We find that home-field advantage is eliminated for the first time in NFL history, suggesting that fansare the primary drivers of the advantage. We then evaluate the extent to which betting lines are incorporating the fanless home-field advantage, testing the efficient market hypothesis over the 2020-2021 NFL season. We see quick adaptation in spread setting over the course of the season as the new home-field advantage is realized. As spreads adjust, we find that NFL betting markets areefficient in pricing home-field advantage, leaving no room for profitable exploitation.
- ItemCan They Survive? : Predicting Criminal Recidivism among Parolees with Survival Analysis(2010) Mangelsdorf, Paul; Owens, David M.In this paper I analyze the effects of individual characteristics on the probability of criminal recidivism among parolees using survival analysis. I use these probabilities to make predictions about whether or not individuals will commit crimes in the aftermath of their release. My predictions are more accurate than previous predictions of criminal recidivism, and a number of insights are gained into what characteristics affect recidivism and how those effects change with time.
- ItemCharitable Giving and Breakable Donation Chains: An Experimental Investigation(2015) Brody, Sarah; Owens, David M.Significant empirical and experimental research has been conducted on the motivations behind charitable giving. Recently charities have unlocked a new key trend in encouraging donations: the “breakable” donation chain. Breakable chains occur when a chain of participants can be effectively “broken” (or discontinued) by a single person’s decision not to participate. While breakable donation chains exist in forms such as “pay-it-forward” chains and kidney donation chains, a recent example is the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge over the summer of 2014. In this instance, the donation chain was both breakable and public. This paper extends the existing literature by testing how breakability affects charitable contributions, in addition to testing the effects of previously studied motivations such as intrinsic and image motivation. The results show that the highest mean donations occur in settings where players donate simultaneously, but that players are more likely to donate any amount under a breakable chain condition. The results imply that people are more inclined to participate if the decision to donate benefits a cause by more than just a person’s single donation, as there may be future donations from subsequent individuals.
- ItemChildhood Environment and Adult Aggression: Evidence from the National Football League(2020) Wujciak, Joseph; Owens, David M.This paper examines the relationship between adolescent upbringing and adulthood aggression by analyzing player-season and player-career level data from defensive players in the National Football League. American football in particular is an excellent laboratory to examine individual behavior as players compete under a shared set of rules. The results from negative binomial regressions suggest a positive correlation between the violent crime rate of an individual's hometown and his propensity to commit aggressive penalties. This link is robust to alternative measures of crime, player position controls, and team and season fixed effects. Previous literature supports a strong connection between childhood experiences and adult outcomes. Ultimately, my research will bolster these findings by observing how an individual's adolescent environment shapes his behavior in a professional setting.
- ItemChoice, Traits, and Leadership: The Effect of Decision-Making Strategy on Effective Leadership Qualities(2019) Moskovitz, Josh; Owens, David M.When making a decision that involves information acquisition, people can be defined along a spectrum of maximizing and satisficing decision making behavior. This thesis aims to predict effective leadership qualities from an individual’s propensity for maximizer/satisficer behavior. Using an experimental methodology, participants were recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk and completed a delegation game, dictator game, ultimatum game, and honesty game. Maximizer/satisficer decision making strategy was assessed through an adaptation of the Schwartz et al. (2002) scale. Results indicate that a greater propensity to maximize predicts a greater preference for control, which could pose problems when delegating tasks is necessary. However, maximizing behavior is found to be unrelated to altruistic preferences, fairness preferences, and honest behavior. This thesis has implications across leadership roles, ranging from athletics to corporate managers.
- ItemConsumer Discrimination in the Top Italian Professional Soccer League(2020) Jin, Jackson; Owens, David M.This paper investigates the presence of nationality discrimination and racial discrimination in Italian Serie A from the 2014-2015 season to the 2018-2019 season. Overall, the results show that there is no statistically significant correlation between a certain group of players and attendance. Therefore, it is possible that the racial or nationality composition of a team does not impact its popularity. The limitations of the dependent variable used in this paper are taken in consideration. The results may be different if an alternative measure of team popularity is used as the dependent variable.
- ItemDrafting Strategies in the Major League Baseball Draft(2011) Carluccio, Charlie; Owens, David M.This study examines how Major League Baseball (MLB) teams have been selecting players in their First-Year Player Draft. The MLB draft is unique because there is a selection issue with two distinct groups of players (high school and college) to select from. An all-encompassing statistic of benefit, WAR, is used to find any distinction in these groups and there is evidence that MLB teams are not drafting according to which group will benefit their teams the most. This study finds that there is value in drafting college hitters within the first 50 picks more than any other player because they become the most successful players in the Major Leagues. In addition, MLB teams will benefit by selecting high school players more often than college players from picks 100-200 because they have the potential to become stars whereas college players are likely to develop into mediocre players.
- ItemEmployment Opportunities and Crime: The Relationship Between Unemployment and the Propensity to Commit Crime(2011) Weaver, Daniel; Owens, David M.This paper presents evidence on the relationship between employment opportunities and crime using state unemployment rates and individual weeks of unemployment per year as explanatory variables. The relationship depends on whether employment and crime are substitutes or complements, or the interaction between propensity and opportunity to commit crime. Results of both state-level natural experiments and individual-level regressions indicate that the relationship between employment opportunities and crime is substantially different during different time periods and that it is has become more negative over time. Furthermore, estimates using data from the past two business cycles indicate that the relationship between employment opportunities and property crime is not economically significant and not clearly positive or negative. Violent crime on the other hand appears to be positively related to employment opportunities, suggesting that violent crime is particularly responsive to the opportunity to commit crime. These results call into question whether crime will increase in the current economic downturn. Furthermore, results indicate that the link between employment opportunities and crime may be economically insignificant and that criminal justice policy targeting recidivism through jobs programs might be better spent targeting other factors.
- ItemExamining the Impact of Foreign NBA Players on the Wages and Employment of American Basketball Players(2016) Winkler, Justin; Owens, David M.This paper analyzes the impact that the influx of foreign players has had on the salaries and labor market outcomes of domestic players in the National Basketball Association (NBA). The study builds on previous literature in the field of labor economics by examining this research question in a highly specialized labor market with a rigid salary structure. First, an unbalanced panel data set at the player-year level from 1990-2008 is used in combination with a log-linear regression model to estimate the impact that the number of foreign players in the NBA has on the wages of domestic players. Results are insignificant. A handcrafted dataset tracking the careers of Chad Ford’s top 50 American prospects from 2001 through 2015 is used with a series of ordered logistic regressions to examine foreign players’ impact on the career length and outcomes of American players. Additional ordinary least squares regressions are used to estimate the career quality of American prospects by the quality of the leagues in which they played. Results of all regressions investigating the career outcomes of American prospects are also insignificant.
- ItemExploring the Third Step: Are Students Eating the Healthy Foods That They are Taking?(2010) Sanes, Milla; Owens, David M.America is in the throes of an obesity epidemic that is affecting younger and younger populations. Because millions of American children receive free or reduced cost lunches through the National School Lunch (NSLP) program, improving NSLP could have a major impact on student health. Effective improvement requires three main steps: first, introduction of healthier foods; second, students’ acceptance of healthier foods onto their lunch trays; and, third, students actually eating the healthier lunch. This paper focuses on the second and third steps: if healthy choices are available, will students choose them and, if so, will they actually eat them once they sit down at the lunch table? The consumption behavior of students in two public high schools in Philadelphia serves as a sample to address these questions. This paper examines the choices students made, both in accepting items onto their trays and in consuming items they chose. Approximately half the students studied chose to take healthier fruit or vegetable offerings. However, their behavior was also consistent with trends identified by earlier research. The students were more likely to eat a larger proportion of unhealthy items on their plates and more likely to throw away a larger proportion of the healthy items. This paper proposes that additional study of peer-focused nutrition education interventions to improve outcomes at the third step.
- ItemFor Community-Driven Development, Mobilization Matters: The impact of mobilization messages on Self-Help Group performance in a community-driven development intervention in rural India(2015) Banerji, Robindra; Owens, David M.As the rate of investment in community-driven development (CDD) increases (totaling $85 billion as of 2013 from the World Bank alone), it is increasingly important to understand the causes of its successes and failures. This project examines the role of mobilizers: specifically, how does a mobilizer encourage active buy-in from potential beneficiaries? Using cross-sectional survey data from Jeevika, a women’s empowerment, antipoverty, and rural livelihoods intervention in Bihar, India, I find that CRPs (Community Resource Persons), poor, female leaders in Jeevika, are the most effective in encouraging participation among potential beneficiaries, due to their high levels of social capital. I additionally find that sharing abstract positive messages such as “Jeevika will help you get out of poverty” and “Jeevika will bring you together as one” crowds out intrinsic motivation stemming from social capital and reduces participation.
- ItemIncentivizing Good Behavior: The Effectiveness of Varying Levels of Financial Team Incentives in Promoting Exercise(2020) Patodia, Arnav; Owens, David M.People often engage in behavior that they themselves would like to change. As this sub-optimal behavior persists over a period of time, it becomes a habit. These habits fail to maximize people's utility and requires some intervention. Economists have devised various incentives to change habits, with the present research evaluating the effectiveness of some of these incentives. In particular, the current work examines the effectiveness of varying levels of financial incentives in a team setting to encourage exercise among college students. The three treatment groups are a high, low and no financial team incentive group. The financial incentives are given out on a ranking scheme which is based on team exercise rates. The initial raw numbers suggest that there is an increase in exercise rates across the treatment groups, with a larger increase in the high and no financial team incentive groups during the treatment. The regression analysis, however, provide no significant change in exercise rates across the treatment groups during and post the incentive period. These findings provide initial discussions on the role of financial incentives within a team setting, with room for improvement. This research has implications across workplace settings, ranging from corporations to athletic teams.
- ItemIncome Inequality, Winning Percentage and the Rookie Wage Scale: Evidence from the NFL(2020) Cork, John Samuel; Owens, David M.This paper explores the effect that income inequality has on winning percentage in the NFL. Income inequality is measured at the team level by three Gini Coefficients. The first being the Gini coefficient of a player's cap hit, then again using cap hit, but excluding a team's quarterbacks and finally, measured using player's base salaries. Analysis for this paper is run from 1991-2019. With the advent of the rookie wage scale in the NFL came a change in how rookies were valued, so this paper also tests the effect of rookies on teams. Along with OLS regression analysis, a different in differences analysis is conducted to test the effect of the rookie wage scale on income equality. This paper finds that income inequality has hurt team's winning percentages over the history of the NFL. In regard to the rookie wage scale, this analysis shows that starting players on rookie contracts is detrimental to teams and increased income inequality in the rookie wage scale era is more devastating to team performance.
- ItemLine Movement Analysis in the NBA(2010) Palmer, Matthew; Owens, David M.In the National Basketball Association there are many external factors that affect the movement of a point spread from its opening line to its closing line. Injury updates, suspensions, recent game history, and public betting trends are amongst the most common reasons for a point spread to move, but it is virtually impossible to know the full reason why a line has moved. Once establishing that the bookmakers’ reasons are unknown, a careful look into the largest moving lines from open to close can provide an arbitrage opportunity for an individual gambler. This paper will analyze each NBA game’s line movement over the past six NBA seasons including playoffs to determine inefficient ratios of winning percentages when gambling on the closing line after the line has moved a certain amount. The results indicate that when the line moves three points or more, betting on the cold team can beat the bookie through repeated use of the strategy over the course of a season.
- «
- 1 (current)
- 2
- 3
- »