Economics

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Major League Baseball Managers and Proactivity
(2020) Baffuto, David; Owens, David M.
This thesis analyzes Major League Baseball managers and the proactive choices they make in a baseball game. The research question is does manager proactive behavior benefit a team. A literature review on managers is conducted for background on risk aversion and success. The data used in this paper is play-by-play and season-level data. OLS regressions are used to create expected runs models and analyze proactive choices like stolen bases, intentional walks, and bunts. Ejections are utilized as aggressive behavior. The analysis is sorted by each type of base runner scenario; there is not one conclusive finding for all proactive strategies. One scenario studied was a runner on first base and finding that stolen base attempts might not lead to more runs scored in an inning but may do so over the rest of the game. For a runner on second base, intentional walks might lead to more runs in an inning, but less over a game. These situations occur regularly and may highlight unobserved behavior when a risk fails in the short term but succeeds in the long term. Baseball managers are faced with risks; taking them may not pay off right away but may by the end of the game.